Why Juventus’ domestic stretch between now and Christmas is reason for some serious nerves

Football is a beautiful game and we Juventus folk are kind, considerate and fairly even tempered when it comes to our team. As we currently sit here warming ourselves in seventh place, no doubt poised for attack on sixth and resting on our 14 points from the first eight matches, I ask myself: what can I expect going into Christmas?

I get that seasons are rarely defined by a single result — looking at you, Lazio — and that our current game could be improved — looking at you, Lecce — but surely, there must be something in Santa’s sack for the Bianconeri. So, today troops, we will take a little stroll through till Christmas and map out what that might look like …

The next couple of months provide a useful measuring stick for (will it be?) Luciano Spalletti’s “developing” side. There are enough winnable matches to build something here, but also enough difficult tests that will tell us whether Juventus are real contenders for the year or mid-table barbarians, raining down on the less fortunate but locked out of the big cities.

To begin — Maths — not my favourite starter but a useful reference point. Let’s begin by making the (bold) assumption that Juventus will beat every team currently below them while losing to every team currently above them. Call it a “mathematical baseline” (or “hopeful” as the case may be).

Juventus’ remaining league fixtures before Christmas are:

At first glance, this could have been much worse. There are only two matches against teams currently above Juventus in the standings (Como and Roma), while the majority of opponents are clubs that the Bianconeri would expect to beat if they are serious about, you know, football, Champions League places and frankly, respecting my impressive mathematical calculus. Put another way, that makes this stretch less about big “show us the money — or at least where we put it” performances and more about consistency.

In the past we built title challenges on relentlessly collecting points in matches they were supposed to win. Can this team demonstrate a similar habit when it comes to getting back into the top four?

Scenario 1: Beat the teams below them, lose to the teams above them

Again, reaching for the good old FX-82C — this is called a “calculator,” kids — we add up six victories and two defeats, producing 18 points from a possible 24. You know what, I’d take that. I’d call that respectable. Getting 18 points would rocket us onto roughly 32 points by Christmas. More importantly, it would probably place us in a conversation about one of those shiny Champions League places. On balance, two points per game across a season is usually in the conversation for a last-gasp top-four finish.

Now, what this doesn’t do is give us a big win, a scalp of note if you will. We know that we have a poor record against (let’s say) the “other” top 4 teams. This bit of mathematical carpentry constructs a points position that does not include any wood taken from elite opposition. Under this scenario, we still can’t win the big ones. Losses to Como and Roma lock that in. We would then be writing at Christmas a story something like, “good team, not a great one.”

Would that still be progress — did you see the Lecce game? Have you recovered from the Lazio game? Yes, this would absolutely be progress. We are not a finished project by any stretch (likely including this stretch of games). Spalletti is still hoping his tactical identity will be fully realized — and we are still hoping he will still be there.

Truth be told, I would settle for that “contender” title we talked about earlier. I would take a Champions League spot and say thank you. I think that an 18-point haul over that stretch would accomplish that — or help. It would, I really believe, mean that the rest of the season would be in our hands to win or lose.

Scenario 2: Winning half of the big games

Only Como and Roma currently sit above us on the table. If we can beat one of those sides while losing to the other, they would win 50% of the remaining “big” matches before Christmas. That nets us seven wins from eight matches, delivering 21 points from a possible 24.

Boom! Instead of beaching ourselves on 32 points by Christmas, we march into town triumphant on 35 big hairy points. Again, doing my magical maths thing, 35 after 16 matches projects us out to maybe get to 80-odd points for the full campaign. If you look at the numbers (cruel and unyielding mistress that they are) teams getting those numbers are not chasing Champions League qualification, they have that in the bag and are in the hunt for the title. That, and we have actually beaten a direct rival (finally).

Since we are aiming for bold, I’m looking at a victory over Como away from home — that puts us into the conversation and into that sweet, sweet Champions League money.

What do I really think — the three defining matches

In truth — and I hope that you please don’t call these predictions — the couple of months likely to come down to three games: Napoli at home, Como away and Roma away.

If we are dropping points against Genoa, Fiorentina, Venezia, Udinese or Monza, we need to start a new blog series called “Remember the good old days” where we review matches only from the last decade. These three matches above are different. They are, with respect, the defining test for a good Christmas vs. asking Santa for a pass straight to 2028.

Now, if you want my secret, secret gut feeling here, I genuinely don’t think we can win all three of those games. Shock. Sadly, I also believe that we could lose all three of those games. Breath. However, my actual prediction is that we will end up wining two out of the three, but we will lose one against one of the other teams in a display of profound and unsettlingly predictable averageness.

So, what does all of this mean? Anything below 30 points on the season by Christmas and we have let ourselves down. Around 32-33 points represents solid but not spectacular work. Reach 35 points or more, and we start to talk about being ballers again.

Wouldn’t that be a Christmas present worth having?