Italy Under-21s must beat Poland by two goals in Pescara to top Group E

Italy’s Under-21 side will go into Monday’s final European Championship qualifier in Pescara knowing only a win by at least two goals against Poland will take them through as Group E winners. That scenario stays open only because of Alphadjo Cisse, whose last-gasp winner in the Azzurrini’s latest qualifier kept the race alive.

The equation is unforgiving. Only the group winner earns direct qualification for next summer’s European Under-21 Championship, which turns the closing fixture into a straight shoot-out between the top two.

Poland arrive with a perfect record. They have won all nine of their matches, scoring 26 goals and conceding only two. Italy have matched them for goals scored, also with 26, but have let in five.

Silvio Baldini’s side have won eight of their nine games. Their only defeat came against Poland themselves in November 2025, when Italy let a lead slip and were beaten 2-1.

That reverse is what makes Monday so demanding. Poland hold the better overall goal difference, so Italy cannot rely on that measure to separate the teams if they finish level. Instead, the head-to-head record decides it, and Italy need to come out ahead on goal difference across the two meetings rather than simply draw level with Poland on that count.

A one-goal victory would not be enough. Italy must win by two clear goals to claim first place.

For Baldini, the test is to overturn the result of a game his side controlled for spells in November but failed to close out. The Azzurrini have shown they can score regularly in this campaign, yet they now face a defence that has been breached just twice in nine outings.

Cisse’s intervention has at least ensured the group is settled on the pitch at the final hurdle rather than decided beforehand. Kick-off in Pescara on Monday brings the qualifying campaign to its conclusion, with Poland needing to avoid a two-goal defeat to secure top spot.