Italy are all-but guaranteed a World Cup playoff spot owing to Norway’s dominance in Group I. However, there is one miraculous solution that could secure automatic qualification.
Italy can avoid the World Cup playoffs and finish top by achieving a scoreline they have only ever pulled off once in their entire history.
The Azzurri limped to a 2-0 win in Moldova on November 13. Late goals from Gianluca Mancini and Francesco Pio Esposito ensured maximum points at the Zimbru Stadium.
However, their efforts can be deemed futile. Norway romped to a 4-1 win against Estonia just hours earlier. On matchday 8, the two go head-to-head in Milan.
Two late goals and we come away with the win ✅#MDAITA #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/f4wCYH4mGc
— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) November 13, 2025
What Italy Must Do To Avoid The World Cup Playoffs
When Italy welcomes Norway to the San Siro on November 16, the Azzurri need a NINE-goal victory to pip the Scandinavians to top spot in Group I.
As unlikely as that seems, it isn’t completely beyond the realm of possibility. However, Stale Solbakken’s side has a perfect record in 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying.
The Red, White and Blues have defeated all before them so far – earning 21 points from seven matches. That of course, included a 3-0 victory over the Italians on matchday 1.
Not only that, the Norwegians have scored a hugely impressive 33 times. No other side in European qualifying has netted more than 22 (Netherlands).
In terms of the top scorer, that honor – unsurprisingly – belongs to Erling Haaland. The Manchester City star has scored 14 times which included a five-goal haul against Moldova in September.
His tally alone is more than the likes of Germany, France and Portugal’s entire return. With the above in mind, Italy – who are second on 18 points – needs a minor miracle to bypass the World Cup playoffs.
With Federico Chiesa’s future in doubt under Gennaro Gattuso, it appears the Nazionale head coach best prepare for March’s semi-final and potential final. Failure there will also cast huge doubt over his own future in the dugout.
It’s almost unprecedented that the four-time winners will miss out for a third successive tournament. Sweden beat them in the 2018 playoff with North Macedonia doing the same for the 2022 edition.
Italy’s Biggest Ever Soccer Wins
Italy’s biggest ever soccer win was in fact a 9-0 thrashing against the USA. That victory was recorded at the 1948 Olympic Games that were hosted in London.
The most the Azzurri have scored in a single match occurred in the 11-3 trouncing over Egypt in 1928. Interestingly, that too was at the Olympic Games.
More recently, Armenia was put to the sword with a 9-1 loss in Euro 2020 qualifying. A tournament of which the Italians would go on to win.
Neighbors San Marino have also been on the receiving end of the Azzurri’s wrath. The soccer minnows were beaten 7-0 in a friendly four years ago.
Although the 9-0 victory is required on November 16, it does seem improbable that Gennaro Gattuso will be joining Fabio Cannavaro’s Uzbekistan in the tournament, yet.
The two were part of the 2006 winning-squad and will be desperate to reunite in the US, Canada and Mexico next summer. However, Gattuso will surely have to take the hard route to the Land of Opportunity.
What Are Norway’s Heaviest Ever Soccer Defeats?
Norway can practically start planning their trip to North America. Looking at their heaviest defeats and applying common sense, they won’t need the World Cup playoffs.
The biggest losses they have endured occurred over 80 years. The Scandinavians were beaten 12-0 by neighbors Denmark in a friendly in 1917.
They also lost 10-0 to Sweden in a friendly that was played just months after WW2. Interestingly, their biggest defeat from 2000 onward actually occurred against the USMNT.
Taylor Twellman helped himself to a hat-trick in the 5-0 friendly victory back in 2006. The Red, White and Blues also took a 5-1 battering against Croatia in Euro 2016 qualifying.
World Cup Playoffs – Italy’s Potential Opponents
Strongly assuming that Italy doesn’t beat Norway by nine goals on November 16, they will play a World Cup playoff semi-final on March 26.
That will be a one-legged affair played on home soil. The Azzurri – who are seeded as a pot 1 nation – will play a country ranked in pot 4.
Should they progress, a one-off final will take place on March 31. The draw for the playoffs will take place on November 20 – after the conclusion of all the qualifiers.
In terms of semi-final opponents, Gennaro Gattuso’s side can meet any one of Wales/Poland, Romania, Sweden or Northern Ireland.
In the final, Gattuso will likely line-up against any one of Scotland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Albania, North Macedonia, Iceland, Bosnia & Herzegovina or Kosovo.
